Is Your Idea Worth Pursuing?

Photo by Rohan Makhecha on Unsplash.

There are no lack of great ideas floating around.

In some sense, it’s our responsibility to transform these gifts from the muse into a reality. But when you’re always trying to solve problems or improve on what’s out there, you’ll likely be struck with an epiphany of THE NEXT BIG THING™ at least once a week. You’ll get excited, do the research, formulate a business plan, pitch to your friends, get some people on board, and start building an MVP (and not necessarily in that order).

You’ll then be struck by an equally powerful, opposing epiphany: your idea actually sucks. And when two opposing forces act on the same point, they cancel each other out, taking you right back to where you started. The muse may be generous with her gifts, but there’s no way to really know the contents until you look inside. You can, however, make a damn good guess.

So how does one weed out the seemingly great from the truly great ideas? How do you ensure they then actually go somewhere?

When you choose to pursue an idea, you’re investing in it. But rather than investing money, you invest something far more valuable: time. That’s why the same principles used in monetary investing can just as easily be applied.

The following is the framework I developed through much research and experience to decide if an idea should be pursued. Most seemingly great ideas will pass at least half these criteria. Drop those. Don’t underestimate the amount of time and dedication it takes for your idea to materialize; this will be your life for the foreseeable future. Only when an idea passes all the criteria should you seriously consider pursuing it.

1. Would I use it? Am I addressing my own pain points?

Whether in the context of a business or commercial product, if it’s not something that you envision yourself using, don’t bother. But what if you’re not the target market? All the more reason not to pursue it. You’ll never be able to completely understand the customers’ way of thinking.

2. Do I have an unfair advantage?

Make that advantages. The more the better. You want to be driving a Tesla while everyone else is riding a bike with a flat tire. Not only will your journey be far more comfortable, you’ll achieve the same results at a fraction of the effort. Whether it’s creating a blue ocean of uncontested market space, access to exclusive resources, or an extremely deep understanding of the domain, so long as it’s something that the competition can’t hope to emulate.

3. Where do I see this going a few months from now? A few years?

Timing is arguably the most important factor for the success of any idea. It doesn’t matter how genius it is if the market isn’t, or won’t be, ready for it.

Unfortunately, humans are horrible forecasters. The longer we project into the future, the more offbeat our predictions become, which is compounded by the fact that we view our own ideas through a rose-colored lens. That’s why one should make their predictions on a spectrum from best-case to worst-case, and assume the worst. If it’s an all-or-nothing bet, it’s probably nothing.

4. What am I really trying to achieve? What is the underlying vision? Is it something that provides value to others?

Ever wonder why Uber for laundry isn’t a thing yet? One possible reason is that their vision statement would be something like “Enabling the upper-middle class to embrace their laziness”. Your idea doesn’t have to be grandiose, but your vision does.

Embedding your idea with an authentic sense of purpose beyond “make a cash cow” is how you’ll survive the inevitable setbacks and periods of doubt. Moreover, it’s what will inspire the truly committed to join you. Lastly, a strong vision provides the foundation for your strategy and affords you more opportunities to pivot, diversifying the ways your idea can evolve down the line.

5. Do I understand the underpinnings? Am I out of my league?

The most difficult criteria to fail, because failing here requires you to accept that, at your current level, you lack the skills necessary to steer your idea from abstract thought into reality.

For some reason the conventional wisdom nowadays is to “figure it out as you go”, when it should really be “figure out parts of it as you go”. You wouldn’t toss yourself into the middle of an ocean if you’ve never been a pool; but if you have, then you’re more likely to successfully navigate the current and swim back to safety.

Remember, it’s not about what you know, it’s about what you don’t know.

6. Trust your gut.

Human beings are irrational, and any good decision making framework takes that into account; you mustn’t discount the significant emotional aspects of decision making.

Very, very, very rarely will an idea that hasn’t passed all the above criteria continue to nag you. Despite everything indicating otherwise, there’s something in your gut insisting this will work. If that happens, then there’s just no helping it; you have to give it an honest try. You’ll regret it otherwise, and peace of mind is well worth any investment. Who knows, it could just be that one in a million crazy idea that actually works.

On the other hand, sometimes an idea will pass all the criteria, but your gut will insist this won’t work. It could just be that you’re overly cautious, lack confidence in your abilities, or are afraid to take the next step. Or it could be that your conscious thinking has yet to catch up with what your subconscious already knows. Use your veto power sparingly.

At the end of the day, most successfully realized ideas are black swan events. No two will develop under the same circumstances and the outcome is unpredictable by nature. As such, no framework can encompass the complexity of the real world. The point of these criteria is not to give you analysis paralysis or provide absolute laws, but to get you to think deeply about and be mindful of yourself and your surroundings. If you find you’re saying ‘no’ to a lot of great ideas, then it’s working.

This article was created to make my life easier and provide a concrete framework for evaluating ideas. If you put it to practice and found it useful in evaluating your own ideas, be sure to share it with others who might benefit!